Role of focus technologies
For the 2024 Agriculture Breakthrough Report, we selected deep dives into two subsectors of the agrifood system, namely reducing emissions from fertilizer (during both the production and the application stage) and reducing enteric methane emissions from livestock.
Agriculture, forestry, and land use (AFOLU) directly account for approximately 21 percent of GHG emissions (IPCC 2022). When we account for the food system as a whole, including post-production and processing phases, emissions from this sector are about one-third of global emissions (Costa Jr et al. 2022; Crippa et al. 2021). Of the total 21 percent emissions from AFOLU, the two top contributors are (i) emissions from livestock and manure (primarily of methane, CH4) and (ii) emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) from fertilizer application.
Methane emissions account for 35 percent of agrifood system GHG emissions (expressed in CO2e) consistently across developed and developing countries (Crippa et al. 2021), with livestock production being the most significant contributor. Indeed, livestock emissions from manure and enteric fermentation represent 32 percent of all global anthropogenic emissions of methane (Global Methane Assessment 2021).
Methane is a an extremely powerful GHG, and the need for action is urgent. Unlike carbon dioxide, which stays in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, methane starts breaking down quickly, with most of it gone after a decade. This means cutting methane emissions now can rapidly reduce the rate of warming in the near term.
The synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer supply chain is responsible for approximately 10.6 percent of agricultural emissions, or 2.6 percent of global GHG emissions (Menegat 2022). Of this, synthetic N fertilizer production accounts for 38.8 percent of total synthetic N fertilizer-associated emissions, while field emissions account for 58.6 percent and transportation accounts for the remaining 2.6 percent (Menegat 2022). Reducing emissions from fertilizer production and application can therefore contribute to climate change mitigation efforts while maintaining crop yields.
Given the importance of these two subsectors, this year’s report focuses on concrete recommendations for reducing emissions from the livestock and fertilizer sectors. Emissions from enteric fermentation have been rising (Figure 3), as have emissions from fertilizer production and fertilizer application (Figure 4), showing that, like the rest of the sector, emissions-reduction goals are not being met.
In this report, we focus on specific technologies within these two subsectors of our agrifood system: enteric methane emissions from livestock and emissions from fertilizer production and application. More specifically, we look at technologies that improve animal feed efficiency and reduce emissions through low-methane forages and methane inhibitors. Regarding fertilizers, we focus on green ammonia, as it has the potential to eliminate all CO2 emissions from ammonia production, but also refer to other ways of reducing emissions from ammonia production. A further appeal of green ammonia is that it could offer a more decentralized ammonia production, with reduced transportation costs, and make fertilizers less prone to trade or supply shocks. Considering that the bulk of GHGs derive from the application of fertilizers in the field, we also point to the scaling up of site-specific nutrient management (SSNM) as a way to reduce these (see section 6 for deep dives on each of these technologies).
The decision to focus on these technologies was based on their current technological maturity, financial viability, and broad geographic applicability, and it was vetted via stakeholder consultations.
5.1 An update on international actions in the livestock subsector
The Global Methane Pledge was launched at COP26 by the European Union and the United States and aims to catalyze the rapid reduction of methane emissions from a variety of sectors, including from food and agriculture. The Pledge target is for participants to collectively reduce global methane emissions by 30 percent from 2020 levels by 2030. As of March 2024, participants numbered 158 countries, representing just over 50 percent of global anthropogenic methane emissions.
Over the last year, several initiatives have enhanced research and development in the livestock sector. For example, the ongoing work of the Livestock Research Group of the Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases (GRA) and the FAO’s Livestock Environment Assessment and Performance Partnership (LEAP). In 2023, the Global Methane Hub launched the Enteric Fermentation R&D Accelerator Initiative at COP28 with US$200 million in funding, supported by philanthropic organizations, making it the largest globally coordinated research effort into livestock methane reduction. Research being supported by the Global Methane Hub includes the development of a feed ration optimization tool (with University of California Davis), co-design of a Global Grazing Management Platform with WWF, and High Potential Shrub Forage Banks to reduce emissions with CIRAD. Public policy and finance projects include IFAD’s Reducing Agricultural Methane Programme (RAMP), support to the World Bank for establishing the Global Methane Reduction Platform for Development (CH4D), and the Parliamentary Action Platform in Latin America.
Bezos Earth Fund also provided a US$5 million grant to Wageningen University in collaboration with the Global Methane Hub, as part of the abovementioned Enteric Fermentation R&D Accelerator, initiating a global effort to select breeding cows with low methane emissions specifically. Following COP28, there have been several conferences and awareness-raising events that have aimed to strengthen international partnerships, including the Launch of the Expert Panel on Livestock Methane, which works together voluntarily to bring the latest peer-reviewed science to the media and policy debate about livestock and climate change.
Dairy Methane Action Alliance was launched at COP28 and is a global initiative to accelerate food industry action to reduce dairy methane emissions. Signatory companies commit to annually account for and publicly disclose methane emissions within their dairy supply chains. International events featuring knowledge sharing on reducing livestock emissions include Global Methane Forum Switzerland 2024, CAAC Conference Nairobi 2024, and a series of dialogues held by the Environmental Defense Fund. The Global Methane Pledge was launched at COP26 in 2021 to catalyze action to reduce methane emissions.
The dairy sector is driving collective change through implementation programs and quantifying the impact via the Dairy Sustainability Framework. These are collaborative programs that encourage solutions for a diverse industry including GHG accounting, animal nutrition, dairy processing, and research on global warming potential, carbon credits, and cattle health.
In 2023, at COP28, the FAO launched Pathways Towards Lower Emissions: A global assessment of the greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation options from livestock agrifood systems, and an accompanying analysis: Methane Emissions in Livestock and Rice Systems (FAO 2023). In July 2024, the CAAC-facilitated Technology and Economic Assessment Panel (TEAP), co-led by Ireland and Senegal, released a key report that spotlights two promising and immediately implementable solutions for methane mitigation relevant to reducing livestock emissions in low- and middle-income countries: digital agricultural services, and results-based payments.
Within the last year, some governments have shifted to a more regulatory approach, albeit with financial disincentives/incentives. The first scheme to tax methane emissions from livestock was launched by Denmark in June 2024; however, the majority of the scheme will not be implemented until 2030. The New Zealand government has meanwhile committed to a fair and sustainable pricing system for on-farm emissions by 2030. Garnering support from a diverse coalition, including agricultural and environmental groups alike, the US Enteric Methane Innovation Tools for Lower Emissions and Sustainable Stock (EMIT LESS) Act seeks to reduce enteric methane by integrating emissions-reduction practices into US Department of Agriculture conservation programs and providing financial incentives to farmers that voluntarily adopt them. However, there is limited inter-government policy coordination on the global deployment of methane-reducing technologies. The dairy industry is quantifying its environmental, social, and economic impact via the Dairy Sustainability Framework, with one aim being to reduce its carbon footprint.
5.2 An update on international actions in the fertilizer subsector
Turning to international actions pertaining to fertilizers, there are no binding international agreements in place, but at the United Nations Environmental Assembly (UNEA) in 2019, a resolution on sustainable nitrogen management was adopted, followed by a second resolution in March 2022 (UNEA-5.2) encouraging Member States to accelerate actions to significantly reduce nitrogen waste globally by 2030 through the improvement of sustainable nitrogen management and to share information on national action plans, as available, according to national circumstances. That same year, 15 UNEP Member States launched the Colombo Declaration on Sustainable Nitrogen Management, which called upon countries to develop national roadmaps for sustainable nitrogen management with an ambition to halve (economywide) nitrogen waste by 2030. Funded by the Global Environment Facility, UNEP undertook a project being implemented by the International Nitrogen Initiative to pursue an International Nitrogen Management System.
The FAO published in 2019 The International Code of Conduct for the Sustainable Use and Management of Fertilizers (including mineral, synthetic and organic sources). The Code addresses the judicious use and management of fertilizers to prevent inappropriate use, underuse, and overuse. It serves to help ensure global food production and food security while maintaining soil fertility, ecosystem services, and protecting the environment, and to optimize the effective and efficient use of fertilizers to meet agricultural demands while minimizing nutrient losses to the environment, which contribute to soil and water pollution, ammonia volatilization, GHG emission, and other nutrient loss mechanisms. The Code of Conduct was developed to support the 2017 Voluntary Guidelines on Sustainable Soil Management, which included nutrient imbalances and soil pollution, involving fertilizer applications that can be excessive, insufficient, or polluting.
A number of other initiatives to mention include the launch by the US at COP27 of the Global Fertilizer Challenge, which supports innovative research, demonstrations, and training to help countries with high fertilizer usage and loss adopt nutrient management and alternative fertilizers. The Efficient Fertilizer Consortium was established by the Foundation for Food & Agricultural Research as a multistakeholder collaboration to invest in solutions to reduce the environmental impacts from fertilizer use. Legislative actions at the regional and national level include the longstanding EU Nitrates Directive, which is targeted at reducing leaching of nitrogen compounds from mineral fertilizer and manure into groundwater. The EU Farm to Fork Strategy aims for a reduction in nutrient losses from mineral and organic fertilizers of at least 50 percent by 2030. The EU’s Common Agricultural Policy for 2023 to 2027 also includes eco schemes, rewarding farmers who reduce use of inorganic fertilizers and engage in other practices that help to contribute to sustainable nutrient management. In the Netherlands, a plan to cut nitrogen emissions by half (mainly from manure from livestock operations) to become compliant with EU law led to widespread farmer protests and a political crisis. Undeterred by developments in the Netherlands, Denmark is proposing a scheme that requires landowners to pay a levy based on emissions from livestock and fertilizer.
The Croplands Research Group of the Global Research Alliance on Greenhouse Gases established the Integrated Nutrient Management Network, which involves 20 researchers from 10 countries undertaking research on effective practices to lower GHGs from fertilizer application. Multistakeholder partnerships such as the Coalition of Action 4 Soil Health (CA4SH) and the FAO Global Soil Partnership (GSP) International Network on Soil Fertility and Fertilizers (INSOILFER) promote sustainable soil management and sustainable fertilization practices.
On the fertilizer production side, the International Energy Agency put out an Ammonia Technology Roadmap in 2021. Referring to the industry’s then current trajectory as “unsustainable,” it set forth two pathways for future ammonia production – leading to 70 percent and 95 percent CO2 emissions reduction by 2050.
Of note on the production side is also the European Union Emissions Trading System, which has announced its plan to phase out free emissions allowances, which had been granted to European fertilizer producers in order to not penalize them vis-à-vis imported fertilizers, starting in 2026 and running until 2034, while simultaneously introducing a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Decarbonization of fertilizer production and use is also a top priority of the International Fertilizer Association (IFA), a body representing the global fertilizer value chain. It monitors developments in low-carbon ammonia production capacity, raises awareness in the industry of technological developments and financial opportunities in this space, monitors (together with FAO) cropland nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) globally, supports the development of databases for supporting decision-making support tools for efficient fertilizer use, and supports development of innovative solutions by engaging with AgTech and Climate Tech startups.