Introduction
The breakthrough objective for the food and agriculture sector is to “make climate-resilient, sustainable agriculture the most attractive and widely adopted option for farmers everywhere by 2030.” Agrifood systems account for approximately one-third of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally when food production, transport, processing, and retailing are considered (Crippa et al. 2021; IPCC 2022). Therefore, sustained reductions in this sector are needed to meet the Paris Agreement target of maintaining the global temperature increase below 1.5–2.0°C (IPCC 2023). In addition to mitigation, adaptation is critical to safeguarding the livelihoods of millions of the world’s poorest and ensuring a just transition to a 1.5-degree world.
The 2023 Breakthrough Agenda Report revised the four guiding principles to measure progress against the breakthrough objective adopted by signatory countries at COP26. Success is: (i) sustainable increases in agricultural productivity and incomes, particularly in low- and middle-income country (LMIC) contexts; (ii) reduced GHG emissions from the agrifood sector; (iii) improved soil, water resources, and natural ecosystems; and (iv) improved adaptation and resilience to climate change, particularly for vulnerable smallholder producers.
In this year’s report, we have prioritized the emissions-reduction goal over the other three, provided that emissions reductions do not negatively affect the other three objectives, particularly for the vulnerable farmers in LMIC contexts. As such, this year’s report will look at emissions reductions from technologies related to enteric methane emissions and emissions in both production and use of fertilizers – the two categories with the highest emissions in the sector (see section 5). To remain within the Paris agreed targets of 1.5 to 2°C by the end of the century, the Climate Bonds Initiative’s Agriculture Criteria guidelines, using the best available science, concluded that an overall reduction of 20 percent in GHG would be needed between 2020 and 2030 and a 30 percent reduction between 2020 and 2040, where emissions are defined as the net emissions resulting from GHG emissions and carbon sequestration and measured as tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e). It is important to emphasize that emissions reductions from the agrifood sector must be a multipronged approach covering all subsectors and at different points in the value chain (see Figure 1). The reason for prioritizing two subsectors from the seven considered in the agriculture chapter of the 2023 Breakthrough Agenda Report and the companion piece of CGIAR’s deep dive report is to arrive at more granular and implementable recommendations. Three caveats are in order before we focus on these selected technologies for the remainder of the report.
First, without deep systemic and behavioral changes (both individual and corporate), technological approaches alone will not lead to desired emissions reductions. For example, efforts should be made to limit food loss and waste. Similarly, reducing the consumption of animal source proteins in high-income countries where such consumption can be above dietary guidelines is an essential pathway for emissions reductions in the livestock sector. Such dietary shifts, according to a study published in Nature, could reduce annual agricultural production emissions of high-income nations’ diets by 61 percent while sequestering as much as 98.3 (55.6–143.7) Gt CO2 equivalent. Second, the onus of emission reduction must be guided by principles of historical responsibility, and those with greatest emissions should be doing more to align their mitigation targets, policies, and measures with a 1.5°C-compatible pathway. In other words, those who have emitted the least must not be held responsible for emissions reductions at the cost of their food and nutrition security needs. For example, in Africa, which only accounts for 4 percent of all historical emissions, increasing fertilizer use to boost food production must be an acceptable pathway, albeit with technology and finance allowing the continent to invest in low-emissions fertilizer production and use. Third, with just six years left to 2030, it is becoming clear that the world is not on track to end hunger and food insecurity (SDG Target 2.1) and end malnutrition in all its forms (SDG Target 2.2) despite decades of increasing food production and yields. Addressing these three trends will contribute significantly to meeting the overall Agriculture Breakthrough goals. Next year’s report should explore these issues in more detail.
